By Osvaldo Coggiola
The official candidate (Lula government) Dilma Roussef has already overtaken in the polls, 50% of intentions to vote for president, which would anticipate a victory and in the first round in October, as happened in 1998 (when Fernando Henrique Cardoso the right beat Lula). The candidate "opposing" José Serra (PSDB), supported by the bourgeois right has fallen to rates around 30%, having exceeded 40% in the preceding months, a real political debacle. To measure, simply note that in his latest TV shows, Serra preferred to appear in old photographs by ... Lula. It also anticipates a significant increase of the parliamentary group of the PT (the House and Senate), although without a majority of its own. The electoral landscape is so favorable it, Lula now tries to force a second round (even if defeated) in elections for governor state of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, traditional bastions of the right, and Rio Grande do Sul, governed by the PSDB in recent years.
The electoral process is the most apolitical conceivable. Length paint it a fact considered folk or anecdotal: a vast number of former players, variety artists, comedians, TV and even models erotic magazines "masculine" (high-priced prostitutes) that appear in the lists of all parties (which were fought to a real game of this type of specimen), several (as) with great chances of being elected as deputies or senators. The election circus, this time, precedes clearly the parliamentary circus.
analysts explanations on "Dilma phenomenon" (the transfer of votes from Lula) aimed primarily economic issues: the relative "softness" of the global crisis in Brazil (something to four thousand laid-off Embraer, for example, would disagree) due to social programs ("Bolsa Familia" and others) who have acted as a buffer, keeping domestic demand. These programs, which consume no more than 0.4% of GDP, were in turn a result of favorable economic conditions for primary exports and the "leftovers Cash 'fiscal 2002-2008.
The causes of the "phenomenon", however, are mainly political. Right (PSDB and allies) has no alternative program as the program of the bourgeoisie and financial capital were executed by Lula in his eight years in government, the most direct representatives of big business throughout Brazil's republican history. Fundraising (corporate) for the election campaign Dilma is doubled (almost one hundred million claimed) than Serra, an explicit vote of the big bourgeoisie for the candidate of the coalition Lulist. The candidates 'green' (PV) of Marina Silva, Lula's former minister, with 8-10% of voting intentions, "ate" votes on the left (Heloisa Helena, the PSOL, explicitly supports it) and right, capturing Feedback "environmentalists" conservative.
Although Lula's policies favored the large financial capital, the left ("left PT") is not an alternative, it was divided about electoral issues ("density" or "profile" applications) and equipment, no program or policy, and its three minimally taken into account expressions (PSOL, PSTU and PCB) did not even criticize the Lula government in its election campaign on television, referring to some general claims (sometimes secondary) and "socialism", as if in another country. In TV debates, only Plinio de Arruda Sampaio (PSOL presidential candidate) criticized Lula, a more personal than his own party. None of the three expressions that left less than 1% of voting intentions.
is not a cyclical issue, quickly overcome. It is the culmination of three decades (from the foundation of PT) to worship the short-range maneuver and privilege to build the apparatus (Or better, the gadget) itself. Matter to those flows mostly support, by way of association or institutional money flow that supports a few hundred "professional revolution (democratic)" grotesque distortion of the concept Leninist ideology that serves the lumpen dilettantism "of Left. The "far left" Brazilian, who came to stand as a point of international grouping is reduced to political insignificance. Lula has no competitors on the left.
Dilma The future government is presented (to the right and not a few analysts supposedly "original" speaking of "Mexicanization" of the country, with the PT in the role of a PRI) as a puppet of Lula. This, in turn, is completely detached from the PT (which Dilma never participated). The government of a Bonapartist clique, however, coupled with the decline of bourgeois right, threatens to transform the PT and the heterogeneous coalition Lulist in a battle for control of a state budget in decline due to global crisis (such that according to the "left" still "failed" to Brazil). The current account deficit the country will have a record this year, foreign debt has grown nearly 14% the first half, during which the escape (official) capital has exceeded 15 billion dollars. The PSTU, however, he began his program by stating that "... the economic crisis will eventually reach to Brazil"! (Sic).
Faced with the prospect of an economic downturn, the program (best record) of the Brazilian bourgeoisie is the same government (and therefore prefer not to change): unprecedented delivery of energy resources, through the "capitalization" of Petrobras, "Argentinize" rather than Mexicanized the country (including, as in government platinum, a couple morganatic symbolic of power), or transforming it into a semi-primary exports. The mass movement (with its hyper-bureaucratic organizations) is unable to overcome their long retreat (on the left Conclat association added a new failure in this regard): the rebuilding of a revolutionary left is essential to provide it with an independent control perspective .
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